That Post About Conditioning

So here is the $64,000 question:

If you finish (or not) with a tired horse, how do you know if you over- or under-conditioned (or if the problem was something else entirely)?

I have achieved acceptance re: the likelihood that I won't ever know why Tuck was NQR when we got pulled.  I'm not sure it actually matters why he was tired -- because I do know that he was tired, those last 5-6 miles -- except insofar as I would like to attempt more 50s and at some point I'm going to need to figure out how I want to prep him for the next.

Here's what I know: due to my burnout, we were hacking near-exclusively all summer and fall.  He did 15-18 miles the weekend before GMHA, which was more than I had intended; I felt my hand was forced by Saddle Fit Crisis 2.6 and the need to figure out what set-up I was going to run.  He then had Monday through Friday off prior to the ride.  He was going a rough average of 20-30 miles per week, split between 4-5 rides, generally maxing out at ~15 miles or 3 hours on a given day.  (That's one 3-hour or 15-mile day in a week!  And shorter other days.  Just in case that wasn't clear.)  He did 26 (flat) miles in one day almost exactly a month before the 50 attempt, and he did a hilly 25/25 in early August (~10 weeks out).

25/25: not tired!

I do know he was tired after his first 25-miler in June, and I think that was roughly a comparable degree of tired.  It may be as simple as that he's a teenaged non-Arab and he just needs more time and experience to get comfy at the longer distances.

My gut says that, vacation aside, it would be a bad idea to back off him toooooooo much.  He's historically a horse that does better with consistent riding interspersed with a week off here and there; he feels better, physically and mentally, in that sort of program than he does in one where he goes twice a week and hangs out for a few days in between.  I am thinking four rides most weeks, sometimes five, and I am thinking more variety: more long walks and schooling days to go along with the working hacks.  I will probably be able to haul out once a month or so (though winter-dependent!) for a long-ride day, either something sanctioned or else a DIY LD locally.

But I'm really not sure what to shoot for, in terms of mileage and/or time.  The arguments against riding a ton of miles make good sense to me, but I'm just not sure we have the base to go super-rested yet.  (Also, I really like to ride.  I am starting to understand why so many endurance riders have multiple horses.)  I also have no idea how to tell -- aside from wonky metabolics, which I am pleased to report that we absolutely did not display -- the difference between tired for conditioning-and-terrain reasons and tired for nutrition-or-electrolyte reasons.

Please advise?

In current events, Tucker nickered when he saw his bridle this morning.  Best pony!  I've been getting bored with the longing routine, so added in a couple of poles and amused myself by watching my Genius Event Horse think about his footwork.  He has never found poles on the ground compelling.  3'6" fences, yes!  Poles on the ground, no.  But he seemed pleased to see an obstacle, any obstacle, and thought hard about where to put his toes.  I'll be scheming to add more poles and maybe raise 'em to cavaletti -- though we don't currently have any Bloks and I am much too lazy to set up longe-line-safe jump standards and then tear them down again, so we'll see -- over the remaining two weeks of our spin-in-circles routine.  And then we ride!

Also, two thumbs up for the dry cow mastitis treatment approach to thrush.  (I have a bottle of White Lightening, but I hate soaking feet, so decided to try this first.)  It is a pretty thin liquid, but the second I started wedging cotton into the heel cracks on his front feet and squirting the stuff in behind, everything started looking much, much better.  Tractor Supply is the best, you guys.

Also also, I jump crewed for some barnmates last night and am pleased to report that 3'3" still looks very doable to me.  It would be no big thing if it didn't -- usually I lose some comfort  when I go a while without jumping and then get it back within a couple of schools when I start jumping again -- but it made me happy.  First saddle-search priority is distance-friendly gear, but I am really hoping that I'll have enough pennies left over to pick up another jump saddle once that's done.  (If all else fails, I have my old Collegiate and that would work for occasional hopping, but it turns out that I am slightly larger now than I was at fifteen, so.)